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Be honest, how often have you seen fearmongers cry wolf lately? Something like: 'This is it, get out of stocks now.' I see it every day, but repetition doesn't make it true.

On the other side of the spectrum are hyper-bulls calling for S&P 500 at 5,000 (or Bitcoin 100,000).

I get it, you have to be outrageous to attract eyeballs. Sorry, I don't work that way. Why?

Sensationalistic claims desensitize investors and eventually they won't trust a valid signal when it finally arrives.

Since early 2021 I've ousted the 'tug of war' between sentiment and breadth, which was likely to create some kind of stalemate.

It's been boring and I've been criticized for not taking a stand, but when there's nothing to talk about, I don't. No bait and switch.

That's why this is the first Free Market Outlook since May 13 (available for review here).

At the time, early May delivered the projected risk and bears had a chance to take prices lower, but I stated May 13 that:

"In terms of price action, there is little damage for the S&P 500. The futures chart shows price tagged double support yesterday. In the past, the S&P 500 may have pierced below support but quickly jumped back above, so a close below support for more than a day or two is needed to get lower targets."

Here is another look at the same S&P 500 Futures chart. Price bounced from support and continues to squeeze higher. The purple wedge pattern is close to its apex and the SKEW Index (black swan indicator) just soared to a record high.

Yes, there is some reason for caution, but it will take a close below minimally the purple and then the green trend line to start turning any risk potential into reality.

Back in April I saw a Bitcoin commercial that blew my mind, I couldn't even believe its legal to show something like this. The commercial along with a Bitcoin forecast is available here.

Continued 'cry wolf free' updates, out-of-the box analysis and forward performance based on historic precedents are available via the Profit Radar Report.

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron's rates iSPYETF a "trader with a good track record," and Investor's Business Daily writes "Simon says and the market is playing along."