ispyetf logo
Login | Free Newsletter Subscribe
What A Difference Would QE3 Have Made?
By, Simon Maierhofer
Friday August 03, 2012
"No QE3 for you" the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday. The market showed it's disappointment. What a difference would QE3 have made?

“Central bank interventions are like sausages. They taste better if you don’t know what’s in them.” - Some German guy who writes a Newsletter.

The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have cooked up a smorgasbord of ‘financial sausages’ since the 2007 bust. Stuffed in appealing high performance casings, the Fed was able to sell all kinds of smelly sub-par trimmings (QE1, QE2, etc.) as prime beef.

Few people cared because stocks were up and the sausages looked good. After a few cases of financial food poisoning however, people are starting to wonder what the Fed and ECB have been mixing in their QE sausages.

Still, for some "odd" reason Wall Street is begging for more of the same. This week the Fed played hardball and didn't allow more than a sniff of the next sausage. That'll have to do for now.

No Accountability to a Higher Authority

The chart below emulates the label central banks have been putting on their faulty products. The slogan is something like this: “Financial sausage consumption increases wealth.” At first glance, who could argue? QE1 resulted in higher stock prices, so did QE2 and LTRO I + II. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) trades only 9% lower today than 58 months ago at its all-time high.

     

But the DJIA is not the only measure that matters. People can't eat DJIA, and the kind of indicators that measure prosperity (or lack thereof) of average American’s look pretty dismal.

Below is the one chart that shows what QE can and cannot do and who QE does and doesn't benefit (hint: Wall Street bankers still get to celebrate their bonuses at Ruth's Chris).

     

2007 vs. 2012

The Dow Jones today is only 9% below it's 2007 peak reading.

Unemployment is about 85% higher today than in 2007.

U.S. debt (based on Treasury issuance) has roughly doubled since 2007 and is about 4 times higher than in 1995.

Starting in 2008, the U.S. has consistently been running monthly deficits.

The number of Americans on food stamps is almost twice as high as in 2007.

The balance sheet of the European Central Bank has ballooned by about 100%.

The Dow measured in the currency that’s hardest to manipulate (gold) is lower today than in 2007.

Election Year “Bonus”

This year is an election year. The incumbent party will do what it takes to stay in the drivers seat and the Fed (and ECB) won’t hesitate to resuscitate.

Is it money well spent? Wall Street will tell you yes. 46 million Americans on food stamps will beg to differ. Wall Street feasts on prime rib while the average Joe is stuck with the “Fed’s sausage.” No food stamps needed.

footer top
footer bottom